Nigeria should raise its economic ambition and target a $2 trillion economy, rather than settle for the Federal Government’s existing $1 trillion objective, Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) President and CEO Samaila Zubairu has said, arguing that Nigeria’s demographic growth requires a far more aggressive expansion of productive capacity, infrastructure and investment.
Speaking at the Africa’s Greatest Investment Opportunity forum in Lagos, Zubairu said Nigeria’s population could approach 360 million by 2050, making faster economic expansion essential to create jobs, infrastructure and productive opportunities at sufficient scale. He argued that the country has already undertaken the difficult work of economic stabilisation and must now convert that platform into sustained, investment-led growth.
From Stabilisation to Expansion
Zubairu’s intervention comes as Nigeria’s economy shows signs of strengthening after a period of significant structural reforms. The removal of petrol subsidies, foreign-exchange reforms and changes to the country’s tax framework have helped establish a more stable macroeconomic foundation, he said.
But stabilisation, in his assessment, cannot be regarded as the end objective.
“Stabilisation is not success. It is the platform from which success must now be built.”
That distinction is important for investors.
Macroeconomic stability can improve the conditions for investment, but it does not automatically create factories, power plants, transport networks, processing facilities or productive businesses. The next phase therefore requires Nigeria to convert improved stability into capital formation and productivity growth.
Why $2 Trillion Matters
The proposed $2 trillion target is ultimately about more than the size of Nigeria’s GDP. It reflects the scale of economic expansion required to accommodate a rapidly growing population.
Zubairu argued that Nigeria cannot afford incremental economic ambition when its demographic trajectory is moving significantly faster. The country possesses a large domestic market, substantial natural resources, energy reserves and a deep pool of entrepreneurial and technical talent.
The challenge is converting those advantages into productive economic capacity.
That requires simultaneous progress across:
- infrastructure
- energy
- education
- technology
- industrial finance
- regulation
- natural-resource development
- and manufacturing.
The argument effectively shifts the national conversation from how large can Nigeria’s economy become? to how quickly can Nigeria build the productive assets required to support its future population?
Four Engines of the Next Growth Cycle
Zubairu identified four sectors that could accelerate Nigeria from a $1 trillion to a $2 trillion economy:
1. Technology
Technology should become productivity infrastructure across the wider economy rather than remain concentrated within a relatively small technology ecosystem.
Nigeria has the talent and technology companies capable of building globally competitive services, but reliable electricity, data centres, patient capital and stronger pathways from skills development to business formation remain essential.
The opportunity therefore extends beyond fintech and software. Digital infrastructure can improve productivity across agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, government services, financial services and energy.
2. Creative Economy
Nigeria’s global position in music, film, fashion and art represents another export opportunity. But Zubairu argued that the sector needs to be treated increasingly as an investable industry rather than solely as a cultural enterprise.
Intellectual-property protection, production infrastructure, structured finance and international distribution will be critical to converting creative success into scalable economic value.
3. Mining and Minerals
Mining represents perhaps one of the most significant opportunities within the AFNIS investment universe. Nigeria possesses substantial mineral resources, but Zubairu’s argument centres on moving beyond extraction.
The objective should be to develop:
geological exploration → mining → processing → refining → manufacturing → export
rather than simply:
mining → raw-material export.
He identified transparent licensing, reliable geological information, processing infrastructure, electricity and financing as important requirements for unlocking the sector. Illegal mining and mineral smuggling, meanwhile, continue to undermine the ability of the formal economy to capture the full value of the country’s resources.
4. Oil and Gas
Zubairu’s position on hydrocarbons was equally strategic. Nigeria should use oil and gas as a source of capital for broader industrial development rather than treat petroleum as the destination of economic policy.
The country’s more than 200 trillion cubic feet of proven natural-gas reserves, he argued, could support power generation, fertiliser, chemicals and other industries. This places gas at the centre of the country’s industrialisation opportunity.
Oil as a Bridge to an Industrial Economy
The distinction between extracting hydrocarbons and using hydrocarbons to build an industrial economy is central to Zubairu’s proposition.
“Oil is not a destination. It is a bridge.”
The implication is that petroleum revenues should increasingly finance assets that remain productive beyond the lifespan of the oil economy.
That includes:
- power infrastructure;
- transport;
- processing;
- manufacturing;
- industrial parks;
- petrochemicals;
- and other productive infrastructure.
This is particularly relevant as global energy systems evolve.
Nigeria’s long-term competitiveness will depend not simply on maintaining oil production, but on using today’s hydrocarbon resources to build industries capable of generating value in a more diversified future economy.
Infrastructure Remains the Binding Constraint
The $2 trillion ambition ultimately runs into a more fundamental question: Can Nigeria build infrastructure fast enough?
Zubairu identified electricity, transport, ports, human capital, regulation and long-term financing as critical constraints.
The point is straightforward.
- Technology companies require reliable power and data infrastructure.
- Mines require roads, rail, ports and electricity.
- Manufacturing requires dependable energy and logistics.
- Agricultural processing requires storage and transportation.
- Export industries require competitive ports and trade infrastructure.
Infrastructure therefore functions not merely as a support sector, but as the foundation connecting Nigeria’s potential growth engines.
The Dangote Model and the Case for Scale
Zubairu pointed to the Dangote refinery as evidence that Nigeria can execute industrial projects at significant scale and use domestic resources to reduce import dependence.
The broader proposition is to replicate that model across other strategic industries, including:
- fertiliser
- chemicals
- steel
- aluminium
- power
- agro-processing
Such projects can create much larger economic multipliers than the export of raw materials. A mineral deposit, for example, creates economic value at the mine.
A mineral-processing facility creates additional value through energy consumption, engineering, employment, logistics and technology. A manufacturing industry built around that processed material adds another layer.
This is the essence of the industrialisation argument.
AFC’s Role in Building the Next Industrial Base
The Africa Finance Corporation is already positioning itself within this investment architecture. Zubairu disclosed that AFC is supporting the development of an alumina refinery in Nigeria, designed to process locally mined bauxite using industrial gas.
The project illustrates the type of integrated investment model increasingly required across Africa:
- African resource
- African processing
- African infrastructure
- African industrial output
- African jobs and value retention
This model is particularly relevant as global investors increasingly seek secure supplies of critical minerals and strategic commodities.
Nigeria’s opportunity is not simply to become a larger supplier. It is to become a more important processing and manufacturing jurisdiction within global supply chains.
The Financing Question
Ambition alone will not deliver a $2 trillion economy.
Nigeria will require substantial pools of long-term capital capable of financing infrastructure and productive assets whose returns may take years to materialise.
This creates an important role for:
- development finance institutions;
- pension funds;
- sovereign and institutional investors;
- commercial banks;
- private equity;
- infrastructure funds;
- strategic investors;
- and domestic capital markets.
The quality of Nigeria’s investment pipeline will therefore become increasingly important.
Projects need to move from broad policy ambition to bankable investment propositions with credible sponsors, transparent regulation, reliable infrastructure and predictable revenue structures.
Strategic Context: Africa’s Largest Economy as a Continental Growth Engine
Nigeria’s economic trajectory has implications far beyond its borders. With one of Africa’s largest populations, substantial natural resources and a large domestic consumer market, stronger Nigerian industrial growth could generate demand across West Africa.
A more productive Nigerian economy could strengthen regional trade, infrastructure connectivity, energy markets and industrial supply chains. This becomes particularly important under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
A Nigeria capable of producing more refined minerals, manufactured goods, chemicals, agricultural products, digital services and energy could become an important production and distribution hub for the wider African market.
In that context, the $2 trillion ambition is not simply a national economic target. It could become part of a broader continental growth strategy.
AFNIS Insight
Samaila Zubairu’s call for Nigeria to target a $2 trillion economy is ultimately a call to increase the country’s capacity to produce, process, manufacture and export; not simply to expand consumption.
The most important element of the proposition is therefore not the number itself, but the economic architecture required to achieve it.
Nigeria already possesses many of the underlying assets: a large market, substantial gas reserves, mineral resources, entrepreneurial talent and a strategic position within Africa. The constraint is the infrastructure and capital required to connect those assets to productive economic activity.
For investors, this creates a potentially significant opportunity across energy, mining, processing, manufacturing, logistics, digital infrastructure and industrial finance.
For Nigeria’s natural-resource sector, the message is particularly clear: the next phase of growth must capture more value after extraction. The proposed $2 trillion target will ultimately be judged not by the headline GDP figure, but by whether Nigeria can build the productive infrastructure, industries and human capabilities required to sustain it.
Nigeria does not simply need a bigger economy. It needs a more productive one; and the investment cycle required to build it is already becoming visible.