August 20, 2026
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Latest News
U.S. Moves to Back African Rare Earth Projects
Nigeria Seeks More Than $40 Billion to Unlock Deepwater Oil and Gas Investment
Standard Bank Weighs OPay Stake as Africa’s Banking Giant Moves Deeper Into Fintech
Post-Hormuz Era Could Reposition Africa at the Centre of Global Maritime Trade
Nigeria Weighs Crude Supply Reforms to Strengthen Domestic Refining and Cut Feedstock Costs
OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast Again as Global Consumption Outlook Softens
Olkaria Geothermal Expansion Project
Olkaria is no longer simply a geothermal power station. It is becoming an energy-development ecosystem around which Kenya is building a significant part of its long-term electricity strategy.
The Greater Olkaria field already hosts multiple generating facilities operated by KenGen and an independent power producer. KenGen’s current growth pipeline identifies Olkaria I rehabilitation, Olkaria II Extension, Olkaria VII and turbine uprating among the projects that will extend the field’s contribution to Kenya’s power system. KenGen’s 2025 integrated report puts the combined pipeline represented by Olkaria I rehabilitation, the 40 MW uprating/topping programme, Olkaria II Extension, Olkaria VII and wellhead leasing at approximately 381.9 MW.
The wider national energy plan lists Olkaria I rehabilitation at 63.3 MW, Olkaria II Extension/Olkaria 6 at 140 MW, and Olkaria 7 at 80.3 MW, with the projects scheduled in the national pipeline through 2028, alongside a 40 MW turbine uprating programme.
This makes Olkaria one of the most important continuing energy-infrastructure stories in East Africa.
Project Gallery
Project Overview
Olkaria is no longer simply a geothermal power station. It is becoming an energy-development ecosystem around which Kenya is building a significant part of its long-term electricity strategy.
The Greater Olkaria field already hosts multiple generating facilities operated by KenGen and an independent power producer. KenGen’s current growth pipeline identifies Olkaria I rehabilitation, Olkaria II Extension, Olkaria VII and turbine uprating among the projects that will extend the field’s contribution to Kenya’s power system. KenGen’s 2025 integrated report puts the combined pipeline represented by Olkaria I rehabilitation, the 40 MW uprating/topping programme, Olkaria II Extension, Olkaria VII and wellhead leasing at approximately 381.9 MW.
The wider national energy plan lists Olkaria I rehabilitation at 63.3 MW, Olkaria II Extension/Olkaria 6 at 140 MW, and Olkaria 7 at 80.3 MW, with the projects scheduled in the national pipeline through 2028, alongside a 40 MW turbine uprating programme.
This makes Olkaria one of the most important continuing energy-infrastructure stories in East Africa.
Project Details
WHY OLKARIA MATTERS
Kenya's geothermal strategy is unusual in Africa because the country has moved beyond treating geothermal as a demonstration technology and has developed it into a large-scale baseload generation system.
The country's geothermal installed capacity was reported by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority at 943.7 MW for July–December 2025, with geothermal supplying 40.06% of electricity delivered to the interconnected grid during the period and generating 3,127.76 GWh.
GDC subsequently announced in June 2026 that Kenya had crossed the 1 GW geothermal threshold, describing the milestone as the product of sustained investment in resource exploration, drilling, institutional capability and investor partnerships. GDC said more than 390 MW of electricity connected to the grid was being generated from steam it had developed in the Menengai and Olkaria fields.
The strategic significance is straightforward: Geothermal is becoming part of Kenya's energy infrastructure rather than simply part of its renewable-energy portfolio. Unlike wind and solar, geothermal can provide relatively stable output independent of daily weather conditions. That makes it particularly valuable as Kenya expands electricity demand from industry, commercial activity, transport and digital infrastructure.
The country's geothermal installed capacity was reported by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority at 943.7 MW for July–December 2025, with geothermal supplying 40.06% of electricity delivered to the interconnected grid during the period and generating 3,127.76 GWh.
GDC subsequently announced in June 2026 that Kenya had crossed the 1 GW geothermal threshold, describing the milestone as the product of sustained investment in resource exploration, drilling, institutional capability and investor partnerships. GDC said more than 390 MW of electricity connected to the grid was being generated from steam it had developed in the Menengai and Olkaria fields.
The strategic significance is straightforward: Geothermal is becoming part of Kenya's energy infrastructure rather than simply part of its renewable-energy portfolio. Unlike wind and solar, geothermal can provide relatively stable output independent of daily weather conditions. That makes it particularly valuable as Kenya expands electricity demand from industry, commercial activity, transport and digital infrastructure.
Project Intelligence
PROJECT SNAPSHOT
▸ Project: Olkaria Geothermal Expansion Programme
▸ Country: Kenya
▸ County: Nakuru
▸ Region: East Africa
▸ Sector: Renewable Energy
▸ Sub-sector: GeothermalDEVELOPMENT PROFILE
▸ Developer: KenGen
▸ Resource Partner: GDC
▸ Project Type: Brownfield expansion / rehabilitation / new generation
▸ Resource: Geothermal
▸ Current Pipeline: 381.9 MW across identified KenGen Olkaria growth projects
▸ Primary Grid: Kenya national gridMAJOR COMPONENTS
▸ Olkaria I Rehabilitation: 63.3 MW post-rehabilitation
▸ Olkaria II Extension / Olkaria VI: 140 MW
▸ Olkaria VII: 80.3 MW
▸ Turbine Uprating: 40 MW
▸ Wellhead Leasing: Part of the wider expansion programmeRESOURCE & DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK
▸ Greater Olkaria Assessed Resource: ~1,200 MW
▸ Key Target Period: 2026–2029, depending on project component
▸ Development Model: Public-sector / development-finance / private-sector participation, depending on component
▸ Investment Status: Active development pipelineSTRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
▸ Strategic Theme: Energy security + industrialisation + renewable baseload
▸ Key Risk: Financing / procurement / execution
▸ AFNIS Assessment: Strategic / Advanced Development
▸ Last Researched: 18 August 2026
THE RESOURCE UNDER THE PROJECT
The Greater Olkaria geothermal field sits within Kenya's Rift Valley, approximately 120 km by road northwest of Nairobi and within the Hell's Gate area. KenGen's project documentation identifies a licensed Greater Olkaria resource area of approximately 204 km² and reports a resource capacity assessment of approximately 1,200 MW, based on exploration, utilisation and well data available for the assessment.
The resource-development model is important.
Geothermal development begins long before a turbine starts turning.
It involves: Surface exploration → drilling → well testing → steam-field development → steam gathering → power generation → transmission → reinjection.
GDC describes these as the core stages of geothermal development, including infrastructure construction, production drilling, well logging and testing, steam gathering and transmission development. This makes Olkaria not merely a power-generation project but a resource-development platform.
It involves: Surface exploration → drilling → well testing → steam-field development → steam gathering → power generation → transmission → reinjection.
GDC describes these as the core stages of geothermal development, including infrastructure construction, production drilling, well logging and testing, steam gathering and transmission development. This makes Olkaria not merely a power-generation project but a resource-development platform.
THE FINANCING QUESTION
Olkaria VII provides an unusually useful case study in the economics of African infrastructure.
A Kenyan Public Procurement Administrative Review Board document records KenGen's estimate of the project's total cost at approximately US$441 million.
According to correspondence cited in the procurement record, JICA had committed approximately JPY15.7 billion, equivalent to about US$109 million, representing roughly 25% of project cost. KenGen intended to finance approximately US$132 million, or about 30%, leaving a reported US$200 million funding gap at that stage.
This is precisely the sort of information that makes a project intelligence record valuable to investors. The headline project value is only one part of the story. The more important questions are: Who is financing it? How much is committed? How much remains to be mobilised? Which financier controls the procurement conditions? What happens if financing concurrence is delayed? These questions have become material to Olkaria VII.
According to correspondence cited in the procurement record, JICA had committed approximately JPY15.7 billion, equivalent to about US$109 million, representing roughly 25% of project cost. KenGen intended to finance approximately US$132 million, or about 30%, leaving a reported US$200 million funding gap at that stage.
This is precisely the sort of information that makes a project intelligence record valuable to investors. The headline project value is only one part of the story. The more important questions are: Who is financing it? How much is committed? How much remains to be mobilised? Which financier controls the procurement conditions? What happens if financing concurrence is delayed? These questions have become material to Olkaria VII.
THE INFRASTRUCTURE AROUND THE POWER PLANT
Olkaria's expansion also demonstrates why power-generation projects should not be assessed in isolation.
The project architecture incorporates:
geothermal production wells;
steam gathering systems;
reinjection infrastructure;
power-generation facilities;
substations;
high-voltage transmission;
roads and site infrastructure;
environmental and social management systems.
The Olkaria VII procurement structure explicitly separates the project into steam-field, power-plant and transmission/substation components.
Related Updates
BEYOND ELECTRICITY: THE INDUSTRIAL OLKARIA
Perhaps the most interesting development around Olkaria is that Kenya is increasingly treating geothermal resources as an industrial platform, rather than simply a source of electricity.
In June 2026, KenGen announced that its Green Energy Park in Olkaria had been gazetted as a Customs Controlled Area, activating its Special Economic Zone framework and associated tax and customs incentives for investors.
KenGen had already begun onboarding industrial investors into the park. In March 2026, the company announced that Synergetic Development Group would use 18 MW of green energy, 10 acres of land and 360 m³ of water annually for an integrated logistics and steel-fabrication centre.
This changes the economic proposition.
The resource is no longer simply:
Steam → Electricity
It can increasingly become:
Steam → Electricity → Industrial heat → Manufacturing → Jobs → Value addition
That is a far more consequential development model for Africa.
THE NEXT RESOURCE FRONTIER: GEOTHERMAL BY-PRODUCTS
KenGen is also exploring industrial applications beyond electricity generation.
In February 2026, it issued a request for proposals for the development of a semi-industrial silica extraction plant from geothermal brine at Olkaria. The initiative is intended to investigate the commercial extraction of silica from geothermal fluids.
This is strategically significant.
It suggests that the economics of geothermal development could increasingly be viewed through a resource-utilisation lens, rather than purely through megawatts generated.
The same geothermal resource could potentially support:
- electricity;
- industrial heat;
- agriculture;
- tourism;
- mineral recovery;
- water-related applications;
- manufacturing.
That is the beginning of a geothermal industrial ecosystem.
INVESTMENT CASE
Why investors should watch Olkaria
1. Proven resource
Olkaria is not a speculative greenfield geothermal proposition. It is an established producing field with decades of drilling, operational and reservoir experience. KenGen’s documentation cites approximately 1,200 MW of assessed resource capacity for the Greater Olkaria field.
2. Established operator
KenGen is an experienced geothermal developer and currently operates multiple Olkaria facilities.
3. Existing infrastructure
The field already has generating plants, steam infrastructure, substations and grid connections.
4. Growing electricity demand
Kenya’s electricity demand is expanding across industrial, commercial, household and emerging electric-mobility segments, increasing the strategic value of dependable generation. EPRA reported record highs across several customer categories in FY2024/25.
5. Renewable baseload characteristics
Geothermal can provide firm generation without the weather variability associated with wind and solar.
6. Industrialisation opportunity
The Green Energy Park and direct-use initiatives suggest that Olkaria’s economic value could extend well beyond electricity sales.
KEY INVESTMENT RISKS
AFNIS Intelligence should be equally clear about the risks.
Financing risk
Large geothermal projects are capital intensive and often require concessional or blended finance.
Olkaria VII demonstrates how financier approval can become a critical project-execution dependency.
Execution risk
Geothermal projects require complex coordination between drilling, steam-field development, power generation and transmission.
Procurement risk
Multilateral-financed procurement can introduce additional procedural requirements and timelines.
Environmental and social risk
Olkaria’s location creates a need for careful management of conservation, tourism, land and community interests.
Grid integration
Additional generation requires sufficient evacuation infrastructure and system capacity.
Reservoir management
Long-term geothermal economics depend on responsible reservoir management, reinjection and sustained steam availability.
AFNIS Insights
Olkaria represents one of Africa’s clearest examples of a proven natural resource being progressively converted into strategic economic infrastructure.
The immediate story is about additional geothermal generation.
The larger story is about something much more consequential: Kenya is building an ecosystem in which indigenous geothermal resources can support electricity generation, industrial development, investment attraction and new forms of value creation.
The current expansion pipeline—spanning rehabilitation, new generation, turbine optimisation and associated infrastructure—shows that the Olkaria story is still being written.
For investors, policymakers and infrastructure developers across Africa, the question is no longer whether geothermal works.
Kenya has already answered that question.
The question now is whether the Olkaria model can demonstrate how Africa’s indigenous energy resources can be developed at scale—and whether the continent can replicate that model elsewhere.
AFNIS editorial assessment.
This is an AFNIS analytical assessment based on publicly available project, regulatory, financing and infrastructure information; it is not an investment recommendation.
