Near-record food inventories, advances in agricultural technology and the emergence of major export powers such as Brazil and Russia are giving the global food system a stronger buffer against the potential impact of a powerful El Niño, even as drought, fertiliser shortages and geopolitical disruptions continue to threaten production.
The resilience marks a significant change from previous severe El Niño episodes, particularly those of 1997–98 and 2015–16, when weather-related crop losses contributed to food shortages, higher prices and economic pressure across major producing and importing regions.
Higher Productivity Has Strengthened the Global Food Buffer
Global agricultural production has outpaced consumption and population growth since the 1980s, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and agricultural analysts.
Higher-yielding crop varieties, increased fertiliser use, improved irrigation and better crop protection have helped lift productivity across major staples including rice, wheat, corn and soybeans.
That improvement means adverse weather does not necessarily translate into the same scale of production losses seen in previous decades.
“Even during drought conditions, better irrigation management and crop science mean we can still produce marketable yields,” said Andrew Whitelaw of Australian agricultural consultancy Episode 3.
The combination of agricultural innovation and accumulated inventories provides an important cushion as the current El Niño gathers strength.
El Niño Risks Are Already Emerging Across Major Producing Regions
The resilience of the global food system does not eliminate the threat.
Dry conditions associated with El Niño have already disrupted crop planting across parts of Asia, including India, Southeast Asia and Australia. India is experiencing a deficient monsoon season, while drier conditions are threatening Australia’s wheat-growing regions.
Crops in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia and Thailand, are also facing moisture shortages.
The situation could become more challenging later in the year. Chris Hyde, a U.S.-based meteorologist at satellite data and imagery firm SkyFi, said the El Niño is expected to intensify during the fourth quarter and early next year, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record.
El Niño typically brings drier conditions to significant parts of Asia while increasing rainfall across the Americas, creating highly uneven effects across global agricultural markets.
Inventories Provide a Critical Shock Absorber
One of the biggest differences between the current environment and previous major El Niño events is the level of available agricultural inventories.
India, which accounts for approximately 40% of global rice exports, holds such substantial rice stocks that storage capacity is reportedly being stretched by reserves equivalent to more than a year of total global exports.
China, meanwhile, holds nearly half of global wheat stocks. As the world’s largest wheat producer and consumer, those reserves could help limit additional import demand should drought reduce production in major suppliers such as Australia.
Global palm oil inventories are also near historic highs, although Indonesia’s expansion of its biodiesel programme is expected to reduce stocks in the coming months.
These reserves give governments, traders and consumers more room to absorb temporary supply disruptions without immediately triggering the extreme price shocks witnessed during earlier El Niño episodes.
Brazil and Russia Reshape Global Agricultural Trade
The global food system has also become more diversified geographically.
Brazil has emerged as the world’s largest soybean supplier, with its soybean exports increasing more than 13-fold since 1997/98.
Russia has similarly transformed its position in global wheat markets. Its wheat exports reached approximately 48 million tonnes last year, compared with roughly 1 million tonnes during the 1997/98 period.
The emergence of these export hubs has increased the number of major suppliers able to compensate for production losses elsewhere.
For global food security, diversification of supply is increasingly as important as the size of individual national inventories.
Technology Is Changing the Economics of Climate Risk
Agricultural technology is providing another layer of resilience. Drought-tolerant corn hybrids have become widely adopted across Africa and the Americas, helping farmers maintain yields during periods of limited rainfall.
Heat- and drought-tolerant wheat varieties are gaining ground in India and Australia, while shorter-duration rice varieties in South and Southeast Asia allow farmers to manage increasingly unpredictable monsoon conditions.
Digital agriculture is also expanding the industry’s ability to anticipate and respond to weather disruption.
Farmers now have access to satellite-based crop monitoring, seasonal climate forecasts, high-resolution soil-moisture mapping and GPS-guided fertiliser application. AI-powered agricultural advisory platforms are increasingly integrating weather, soil and crop data to provide recommendations on planting dates, irrigation, fertiliser application and pest management.
The FAO’s Chief Economist, Maximo Torero, noted that governments now have access to better information and can prepare earlier, while improvements in forecasting and market transparency have strengthened the ability to manage food-market shocks.
Geopolitical Disruptions Remain a Major Vulnerability
Despite stronger agricultural fundamentals, geopolitical developments could undermine some of the resilience provided by inventories and technology.
The conflicts affecting the Middle East and Black Sea region have created additional risks to fertiliser and fuel supplies, both of which are essential to maintaining agricultural productivity.
The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is particularly significant. Before its blockade during the Iran war, the waterway carried roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Higher energy costs can feed directly into agricultural production costs through more expensive diesel, fertiliser manufacturing and transportation.
This means the food-security challenge is no longer determined solely by whether farmers can produce enough crops. Energy markets, shipping routes, fertiliser availability and geopolitical stability have become integral components of global food security.
Africa’s Food Security Challenge
For Africa, the changing global food system presents both opportunities and risks.
The wider adoption of drought-tolerant crops, digital agriculture, improved irrigation and climate forecasting could strengthen agricultural resilience across the continent. At the same time, Africa remains particularly exposed to fluctuations in global commodity prices, fertiliser costs and international food supply chains.
The emergence of major agricultural exporters such as Brazil and Russia provides greater diversity in global supply, but it also reinforces the importance of developing Africa’s own productive capacity.
For African economies, the strategic objective should therefore extend beyond managing the immediate impact of El Niño. Investment in irrigation, climate-resilient seeds, storage infrastructure, agricultural logistics, fertiliser production and digital farming can reduce exposure to external shocks while creating opportunities for rural industrialisation.
AFNIS Insights
The current El Niño episode is testing a global food system that is fundamentally better equipped to absorb climate shocks than it was three decades ago. Larger inventories, higher agricultural productivity, diversified export markets and technological advances have created multiple layers of resilience.
But the system’s resilience should not be mistaken for immunity.
Weather disruption is occurring alongside geopolitical fragmentation, energy-market volatility and fertiliser supply constraints. These interconnected risks mean that a crop shock in one region can still rapidly transmit through international commodity and food markets.
For Africa, the strategic lesson is particularly important. The continent’s long-term food security will depend not only on favourable weather but on its ability to build productive, technology-enabled and resilient agricultural systems. Expanding irrigation, storage, local fertiliser capacity, climate-smart seeds and digital agricultural services can simultaneously strengthen food security and create new investment opportunities.
The longer-term investment case is clear: climate resilience is becoming an essential component of agricultural competitiveness, food security and economic sovereignty.