Africa could face economic losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion if an anticipated “super” El Niño develops as forecast, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB), raising fresh concerns over food security, infrastructure resilience and macroeconomic stability across the continent. The warning comes as climate scientists project one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with the potential to trigger widespread droughts, flooding and severe storms across multiple African regions.
AfDB Flags Growing Economic and Humanitarian Risks
Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s Director for Climate Change and Green Growth, said the climate phenomenon could reduce GDP by 1% to 2% in the countries most severely affected, making it one of the most significant climate-related economic threats facing the continent in recent years.
Beyond agricultural disruption, the Bank warned that the cascading effects could extend to government finances, banking systems and infrastructure. Damage to transport networks, water systems and energy assets would not only increase reconstruction costs but could also place additional pressure on already debt-constrained economies struggling to finance recovery.
The warning follows forecasts that warming Pacific Ocean temperatures could produce a “super” El Niño; a rare event associated with prolonged drought in parts of Southern Africa and the Sahel, while increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall and flooding across sections of East Africa.
Climate Shocks Threaten Food Security and Fiscal Stability
The AfDB cautioned that the economic consequences would extend well beyond agriculture.
Reduced crop yields, livestock losses and water shortages are expected to heighten food insecurity, while damaged infrastructure could interrupt trade and economic activity. Financial institutions may also face increased credit risks if governments, businesses and households struggle to recover from climate-related losses.
Countries already facing conflict, humanitarian crises or fiscal constraints, including Sudan, Somalia and parts of the Sahel, could experience heightened vulnerability as climate shocks compound existing development challenges. The Bank also warned that prolonged weather disruptions could accelerate internal displacement and migration from severely affected regions.
Adaptation Finance Moves Higher on the Development Agenda
The projected losses are likely to intensify calls for greater investment in climate adaptation rather than relying primarily on post-disaster relief.
According to the AfDB, strengthening irrigation systems, expanding climate-resilient infrastructure, improving early warning systems and protecting critical transport and energy assets will be essential to reducing future economic losses. The Bank is exploring additional financing options, including support from international climate funds, as governments prepare for potential impacts.
The warning also reinforces growing concern that climate-related disasters are becoming structural economic risks rather than isolated environmental events, requiring greater integration of climate resilience into national development planning.
Strategic Context: Climate Resilience Is Becoming an Investment Imperative
Africa’s development agenda is increasingly intersecting with climate risk.
As governments pursue industrialisation, critical minerals development, infrastructure expansion and regional trade integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the resilience of physical and economic infrastructure is becoming a central investment consideration.
For investors, development finance institutions and policymakers, climate adaptation is evolving from an environmental priority into an economic necessity. The capacity of countries to withstand extreme weather events will increasingly influence sovereign risk assessments, infrastructure financing, agricultural productivity and long-term investment attractiveness.
AFNIS Insight
The AfDB’s warning highlights a broader shift in how climate change should be viewed across Africa—not simply as an environmental challenge, but as a material economic and investment risk capable of reshaping growth trajectories.
A potential $10–20 billion economic shock underscores the importance of embedding resilience into infrastructure, agriculture, energy systems and financial planning before disasters occur. Countries that accelerate investment in climate-smart infrastructure, digital weather forecasting, water security and resilient food systems are likely to strengthen both economic stability and investor confidence.
At the same time, financing remains a critical constraint. With many African economies facing elevated debt burdens and tightening global development finance, mobilising blended finance, climate funds and private capital for adaptation will become increasingly important.
The coming months will test the preparedness of governments, regional institutions and financial partners. While the severity of the anticipated El Niño remains subject to evolving climate conditions, the warning serves as a strategic reminder that resilience is becoming a defining pillar of Africa’s long-term competitiveness and sustainable development.