Cape Town / Johannesburg, February 2026 — South Africa is confronting one of the most severe livestock health crises in decades as a widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) continues to ripple through the agricultural economy, undermining production, exports and farmer livelihoods. The outbreak, present in seven of nine provinces, has exposed gaps in domestic disease management capacity and triggered significant trade disruptions with major external markets.
What Has Happened
Since early 2025, South Africa has battled a resurgent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease — a highly contagious viral illness affecting cattle, sheep, goats and other cloven-hoofed animals. Despite global demand for beef, South Africa’s industry has experienced substantial setbacks:
- Beef exports declined by 26 per cent in 2025 compared with the prior year, with shipments to China — historically a key destination — down 69 per cent after Beijing banned imports of South African red meat in May 2025 due to animal health concerns.
- The disease has spread broadly, impacting previously unaffected regions and heightening operational costs for farmers already managing thin margins and high input prices.
- Individual farm impacts have been acute: dairy producers report sharp declines in milk output, rising veterinary expenditures and constrained herd mobility due to quarantine measures.
Agricultural voices warn that the livestock population could fall substantially over the next two years if containment remains elusive, with potential knock-on effects for food prices and rural employment.
Containment and Response
In early February 2026, the government deployed its first domestically produced FMD vaccine in two decades in an effort to achieve herd immunity — with a target of vaccinating 80 per cent of the estimated 12 million head of cattle nationally. However, authorities acknowledge that the domestic production base remains limited, necessitating ongoing importation of vaccines from Botswana, Turkey and Argentina to meet urgent needs.
Notwithstanding these efforts, many farming groups and economists describe the official response as slow and fragmented, citing structural shortcomings in veterinary infrastructure, surveillance systems and coordination among agencies. Calls for more decisive policy action, including proposals to elevate the crisis to a national disaster, reflect anxiety within the sector about prolonged disruptions and insufficient risk management capacity.
Economic and Trade Impacts
South Africa’s livestock industry plays a significant role in both domestic food systems and export revenue. The ongoing outbreak has:
- Diminished export earnings and reduced access to key external markets with stringent animal health standards.
- Raised domestic production costs, particularly for quarantine compliance, veterinary support and biosecurity measures.
- Generated secondary inflationary pressure on food prices, particularly for red meat and dairy, as supply tightens and risk premia persist.
The restricted movement of livestock and prolonged quarantine periods further constrain economic activity in rural districts and strain cash flow for farmers who rely on regular turnover and sales.
Structural and Policy Considerations
This outbreak underscores several structural vulnerabilities in South Africa’s agricultural health and trade governance systems:
Biosecurity Capacities: The episodic resurgence of FMD highlights the need for sustained investment in veterinary surveillance, rapid response units, and modern laboratory infrastructure capable of early detection and containment.
Domestic Vaccine Sovereignty: While the revival of local vaccine production is a critical milestone, scaling production to achieve self-sufficiency remains a multi-year endeavour. Strengthening this capacity is essential to mitigate future outbreaks and reduce dependency on external supply chains.
Trade and Market Confidence: Reinstating and maintaining export market access, particularly with high-value destinations, will require demonstrable progress in disease control, transparent reporting to international animal health bodies, and alignment with World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) standards.
Rural Livelihoods and Risk Transfer: The crisis illustrates how contagious animal diseases can transmit economic risk across value chains, with implications for employment, rural development and consumer prices. Well-designed risk transfer mechanisms and insurance instruments may help cushion shocks to producers and traders.
Broader Agricultural Resilience
South Africa’s FMD outbreak is not isolated in its implications. Globally, animal health events can have far-reaching consequences on supply chains, trade patterns and food systems resilience. Strengthening continental cooperation on animal disease surveillance and vaccine capacity could enhance early warning systems and collective preparedness across African livestock economies.
Conclusion
The ongoing foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in South Africa presents a multifaceted challenge at the intersection of animal health, trade policy and economic resilience. Addressing its immediate effects and preventing future escalations will require decisive policy action, strategic investment in biosecurity and veterinary production capacity, and sustained engagement with international health standards. For farmers, markets and policymakers alike, managing this crisis will shape agricultural performance and food system stability in the months and years ahead.
Citation
Reuters: South African farmers count mounting losses as foot-and-mouth disease rages